The Central Intelligence Agency is rumored to have researched this issue several years ago, and I found the topic to be quite important. The CIA is interested because once the Florida mines are exhausted (which is supposedly starting to happen and why the CIA began their research), the only countries where we can get supplies of Phosphorous are not friendly/easy to deal with.
Aside from the price of Copper, the Peak Phosphorous issue is like to be the most economically important trend in soil minerals over the coming years. How will the price of phosphorous rise over the coming years, and it seems that phosphorous will have more Supply & Demand issues than the other minerals. What are the rewards to the first mover who invests in Phosphorous now? How important will it be to recover all of the phosphorous from our food chains? Further, it is not the point of which there is no more phosphorous, but the point at which demand is significantly greater than supply that prices start to really shift. I am keen to get ahead of this economic curve and secure what I need, sooner rather than later.
Here is a Youtube links: https://youtu.be/RXvSiY5FZqQ (1972 promo video on the role of P)
In this German paper (published), the authors make clear that they do not expect pricing issues within this century:
“Given the current reserve estimates for phosphate rock, neither an exhaustion of global researves nor a peak event is likely to occur within this century. However, these estimates are subject to a significant degree of uncertainty. Moreover, the global distribution of phosphate production and reserves is highly skewed and has the potential to pose a threat to food security in developing countries through factors such as the volatility of rock price or price setting by suppliers with significant market power.”
It is that sentence that would keep my focus on this topic. The CIA was interested in this, because the closest and largest reserves to the USA are in Morocco, and more specifically in a part of Morocco that is politically very difficult to control.
A link to a report studying Peak Phosphorous published by Energy Bulletin, which contains the following graphic: